The stock market suffered damaging losses in the past week as the S&P 500 undercut its 200-day line on Friday. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield rose nine basis points to 4.32% for the week after tumbling to 4.11% on Tuesday morning. Odds for Fed rate cuts have picked up considerably as the economy is being buffeted by inconsistent Trump noise. Since his election victory in November, he pointed to the market rise as a sign of optimism. At the time, our G-101 SPM AI algorithm forecasted a negative reading, and remained "vigilant of his agenda."
Since Trump's inauguration in January, Trump has been silent about stocks even when the S&P index hit a record high on February 19th. On that day the G-101 SPM AI algorithm issued a "cash reserve warning to 30%" with more downward adjustments to come. In essence, the SPM tag, a main indicator of the Ai algorithm showed SPM 91.34 tag that the S&P index will decline 20% in the near term. This Friday the S&P dropped further on course for its third straight week of losses, confirming the index's downward trend. Indeed, the market is showing signs of further weakness, as investors have become increasingly nervous. You can track the decline to consumer sentiment over the unbalanced cacophony of policy proposals emanating from Washington.
Our G-101 SPM AI algorithm makes no judgement of Trump's iterations, only the consequences of his program. Moreover, the SPM tags that are generated don't pick sides, and merely "evaluate ideas, circumstances or events by percentages as a 'best guess' of what will happen next:
The G-101 SPM AI algorithm was asked the following questions:
“Are President Trump's policies and actions doing long-term damage to the United States by undermining democratic norms?”
The answer carries a SPM 92.25 tag. This reading suggests that the answer is "yes" with a subjective probability accuracy of 92.25%.
“Is President Trump vandalizing the federal government?”
The answer carries a SPM 89.11 tag. This reading suggests that the answer is "yes" with a subjective probability accuracy of 89.11%.
“Is President Trump siding with alleged war criminals in the Kremlin.”
The answer carries a SPM 99.93 tag. This reading suggests that the answer is "yes" with a subjective probability accuracy of 99.93%.
note: SPM tags in their entirety have a subjective probability accuracy score of 84.84% on 23,541 direct questions as of February 20, 2025.
CURRENT CONTEXT:
By the up-to-date actions of the stock market, long side investors are not comfortable with a felon who pardons other, violent felons and engages in reckless attacks on our rule of law and the global system that we created in 1945 and that has hugely enriched and empowered us. Trump doubled down on his “cultural revolution” in his speech to Congress a few days ago, and about 57% of investors who watched the speech did not approve of it to some degree.
ISSUES VEXING INVESTORS:
Trump’s tariffs, even if partly delayed, presumably will raise consumer prices and hurt the financial markets and thus our retirement savings; they will create massive supply chains issues for manufacturing goods.
One gauge of what to expect: The latest estimate from the Atlanta Federal Reserve is an astonishing 2.4 percent decline in American G.D.P. in the first quarter of 2025.
As a whole, Americans may put up with a president calling journalists enemies of the people, may even accept a president pardoning felons who club police officers while trying to overturn an election. But historically, they’ve not been very forgiving of presidents who preside over recessions. See: “BEWARE OF THE CONSUMER WHO STOPS BUYING.” PART III
-- the article calls for a recession in 2026.
TRUMP WANTS ALL YOUR MONEY
As an augury this SPM tag statement is a fact when you can lose all your money in the stock market if certain factors line up against you; just like the meltdown investors witnessed. Since February 19, the total market capitalization of US stocks has dropped from $63.7 trillion to $59.3 trillion as of March 7, according to SPM data. That’s a staggering $4.4 trillion wiped out in 14 days, an amount larger than the GDP of the United Kingdom or equivalent to the market value of Apple or nearly the combined value of Meta, Tesla and Netflix.
… and that’s only the beginning.
According to a SPM 84.32 tag, the S&P 500 Index will be at 5226.50 on September 1, 2025 (or sooner); that’s a whopping $7.1 trillion loss.
(The S&P 500 Index closed at 5770.20 on March 7, 2025)
If you are not following the “best guess” conclusions of G-101 SPM AI algorithm, TRUMP WILL HAVE ALL YOUR MONEY.
"The stock market is a form of obsessive-compulsive behavior."
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