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TRUMP NOISE CONFLICTS WITH ANALYTICS


FACT: Trump plans to impose a 5% tariff on all imported good from Mexico beginning June 10, a tac that would "gradually increase" until Mexico stops the flow of undocumented immigrants across the border.

FACT: Mexico warned that tariffs on goods could worsen illegal immigration to the US and end up hurting both countries.

FACT: Trump's tariff noise came as US officials push for passage of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

FACT: Mexico's Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard remains committed to tackling the issue, and warned that if they did "nothing," a quarter of a million migrants would reach the US this year.

FACT: In 2018, Mexico was the second largest supplier of goods ($352billion) to the US.

ANALYTICS: Projected cost of the tariffs in the agricultural sector is $117million, a month in both countries.

ANALYTICS: Using our proprietary Subjective Probability Model + Game Theory Model (SP+GTM) algorithm, Trump will "delay" the implementation of the traffic on any excuse offered by Mexico to "contain" people reaching the southern border. The "delay" will cause a temporary runup of stock prices in the US markets, a clear opportunity to go short.


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