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Tilray, Inc. (TLRY) 109.54+0.55 (+0.51%)

TLRY will release its earnings on November 13th after the market closes. With its market capitalization at $10.22 billion and extremely negative forward earnings projections, TLRY is not ready for prime time. Yes, FJC’s commentaries suggested a BUY in the $30 range and to “SELL at the market” when the stock hit $300 was a great conclusion, which was based exclusively on momentum. (see commentaries) After the noise has settled, on a value basis TLRY is worth $45 a share -- a reduction from our previous price range of $75. The issue is valuation and its ability to raise more cash to support operations. With TLRY focusing on growing the stuff as “farmers” and the focus on pharmaceuticals, the company’s business model lacks substance to grow the bottom line. Earnings per year are the name of the game, and TLRY will not hit the black marker until 2025, if at all.

Brendan Kennedy, CEO of TLRY has been talking the talk with more noise than substance, claiming that marijuana companies can hit a $100 billion valuations with a $150 billion global cannabis industry. Never will happen with the current business model of most cannabis companies.

The numbers speak for themselves: Book value below $1.00 per share, 78 million shares outstanding with a 10 million share float suggests stock liquidity is marginal at best and the company's demands for more capital, the dilution factor will create weaker stock prices. Without true earnings in sight, TLRY looks like a giant wave about to collapse.

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