January 15, 2022, an international evaluation of 15,000 business leaders (targets) was concluded using corollary data within our G-101 algorithm, series 7. The conclusions suggest a subjective probability of 73.64% that the targets are optimistic about the economy in the near term with 54.29% of targets implying a contraction of growth to cause a recession in 24 months.
We take their conclusion one step further: G-101 sees the U.S. dollar dropping 13 percent.
The primary factor is the debauchment of the currency and its artificial support at higher values. The elephant in the room is 24 trillion U.S. dollars in easy money since 2020 related to the coronavirus pandemic, which propelled the global economy to increase fake money practices. The U.S. economy expanded by 7.8 percent annualized pace and 10.0 percent going forward due to inflated values, which pours an unlimited amount of gasoline to ignite double-digit inflation levels not imaginable 6 months ago. The Consumer Price Index in December rose at a 7 percent annual rate, the fastest pace in 40 years. G-101 SP tag predicts 11 percent in 15 months.
The Fed sits on an $8.9 trillion balance sheet as its monetary stimulus accommodated a total of roughly $5 trillion in pandemic fiscal relief by the federal government. As well, governments and central banks around the world engaged in emergency relief spending. The global fiscal and monetary stimulus total amounts to $31 trillion. G-101 calibrated the combined effects of quantitative tightening and interest rate increases in real-time fixed tangible interest rates at 12% to 14%. Cutting off stimulus too rapidly and the Fed will see the dollar drop 10 percent; cause a spike in unemployment and a sharp slowdown in growth, plunging the United States into a recession.