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Predicting the Future in the Post-Covid 19 World

With GREENMARK 101 (“G101”), our subjective probability algorithm, being directed away from measuring hemp-related data to the pandemic, the findings of post covid 19 future is not what we expected.

G101 predicts a new style of government, possibly as Democratic Realism, once the pandemic moved to the next phase –normalization.

Truth will be fashioned from manipulated facts, and the deliberate contraction of the free flow of information on the pretext to establish normalization. These tactics will be met with comparatively minor resistance as the pandemic provided a ready-made excuse for democratic governments around the world to obstruct opposition parties, i.e. the circumstances of banned public assembles, suppressed voting, quarantine cities, strong-armed businesses, imposed travel restrictions and censored hostile media outlets in the name of combating false information.

Today, our research has uncovered more misinformation to make the truth difficult to access. In the vacuum of “stress management” government leaders are using the pandemic to, i.e. shoot to kill orders against political protesters as in the Philippines, cellphone data to track movements of infected individuals as in Israel. The latter is been quickly adopted with no scruples, and has become the model and alibi for the universal collection of data.

What society deems unacceptable before the pandemic is becoming the norm and would be difficult to reserve. Civil liberties are been sacrificed to “fatten the curve.” Whether the U.S. adopts these policies with enough overview remains an open question.

As the lockdown of 2020 extends to late summer, a process of normalization will begin to take hold, the U.S. will not be an exception. By effectively barring society’s interaction because of unacceptable health risks, the use of party-political platform by Trump as the “face” to the pandemic without independent fact-checking, allows the incumbent to wield emergency powers of government while aiding his reelection bid. Being at the right place and the right time guarantees Trump’s political success.

As unprecedented civil liberties recede, big government grows. Unprecedented unemployment means an unprecedented increase in Medicaid rolls, jobless benefits, housing assistance, and food stamps. As the reelected president, Trump will preside over an expansion of the welfare state the like of which Bernie Sanders could only have dreamed about a year earlier.

Nor did events change much after the lockdown is lifted, as people will remain reluctant to venture into restaurants, shops, and planes – and less able to afford them. Millions of business failures and personal bankruptcies will translate into tens of millions of loans and mortgages delinquencies, which in turn will cause a new financial crisis. At least 15 banks will require outright nationalization, while the government takes major stakes in every industry it rescued. By the time a safe vaccine is finally available the damage has been done.

Meanwhile, the developing world experienced a crisis far more severe. “Flattening the curve” made little sense to countries whose medical systems were already overwhelmed and under-equipped long before covid-19 hit its mark. Stay-at-home and social distancing orders represent cruel and enforceable punishment in densely populated cities like Lagos, Cairo, Jakarta, and San Paulo. People faced with hunger if they don't get to their jobs are prepared to take their chances with the coronavirus. The result is a fearsome fatality rate, not much mitigated by the fact that poor countries have younger populations.

Before the pandemic, Joe Biden was certain to be elected president. Now, Trump and his party prove to be right. Environmental concerns seem like idle luxuries when gas is cheap and CO2 emissions plummet along with the economic activity. Demand for gun control and criminal-sentencing reform are non-issues in the face of increasing levels of crime. Trump’s new battle cry for getting American “back to work” will resonate with rural and suburban voters, who thought they had less to fear from the virus and tended to measure personal risk differently than urban elites.

A bellicose spirit is also taking hold. Economically damaged regimes – China, Russia and Iran especially – look to offset domestic discontents with foreign adventures. Military entitlements will accelerate everywhere, partly as a form of employment, partly out of a sense of fear.

The paradox of the Covid-19 crisis is bringing the world together as never before in a common experience of lockdowns and nervous neighbors. G101 algorithm declares that fear will transform our representative democracy to democratic realism. No longer will the people can take part in the decisions that affect the way their communities are run. The federal government appeared headed to “direct traffic with limited resources” and change our form of democracy as we know it.

Note: The declarations addressed in "Predicting the Future in the Post-Covid 19 World" are exclusively confirmed by G101 algorithm, and may not represent the views of Northridge Corporation or its management.

Note: 100 years ago, influenza (“Flu”) pandemic swept the globe, infecting an estimated one-third of the world’s population and killing at least 50 million people. The pandemic’s death toll was greater than the total number of military and civilian deaths from World War I, which was happening simultaneously. The pandemic is commonly believed to have occurred in three waves. The unusual flu-like activity was first identified in U.S. military personnel during the spring of 1918. Flu spread rapidly in military barracks where men shared close quarters. The second wave occurred during the fall of 1918 and was the most severe. The third wave of illness occurred during the winter and spring of 1919.

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